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How To Engineer An Economic Crisis: Lessons From Ghana's Handbook

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                                                  Photo credit:REUTERS/ Francis Kokoroko Three years ago, Ghana stood out as the shining star among African countries. Ghana was what every other African country wanted to become. The big brother we all looked up to.   In 2019, Ghana’s economy was heralded as the fastest growing economy in the world. The IMF had estimated Ghana’s economy to grow by 8.8% that year, a jump from a growth rate of 5.6% in 2018, driven largely by flourishing oil and non-oil sectors. More to that, in December of 2019 the Ghana Cedi had appreciated by 14.81 % against the US dollar as compared to an appreciation of about 9.05% during the same period in 2018. Inflation levels were also considerably moderate at 7.9%. Looking at Ghana’s economy three years later, the wheels seem to ...

"My government shall lower the costs of living within the first 100 days of office" & other stories.

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        Photo credit: First 100 days podcast. In the song Good Times , rapper Mbithi sings, “ utamu wa nyama choma nikukulia kwa mbao…,” I’d want to tweak that a little to, “ utamu wa mutura nikukulia kwa mbao…,” sounds better this way yeah? At least that’s what I thought when I passed by my mutura guy’s place last Tuesday as I hurried home to catch the presidential debate. It’s what I think to myself every time I eat mutura from his place. Because come on, where else would mutura be served from if not from a wooden chopping board? I’ve seen gentrified folk post photos on the gram of their mutura being served in some fancy bowls in the posh restaurants they patron. I want to state it here, categorically, that that’s an affront to mutura . It’s against culture and tradition. Heck, it’s even unconstitutional. Njoro, our street lawyer can attest to this. Njoro is a diehard patron of the Mutura base I frequent. He’s supposed to have graduated from law school like 1...

Faces of the coin that the Unga subsidy is.

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  With the government’s subsidy on maize flour in place, ugali sosa is set to make a comeback, much to the delight of many Kenyans. However, the move has elicited vociferous debate, on social media platforms with a section of Kenyans terming it to be a political move now that we are on the cusp of the general elections, while others query why the government couldn’t have intervened much earlier. The bottom line however is, if it happens that on your next visit to kwa Mathe the first ugali serving does nada to calm the pangs of hunger, you can afford to say “ Mathe, leta sosa!” without batting an eye lid. In the previous week’s post, I had opined that instead of using price controls to check the rising costs of living, as a section of Kenyan tweeps were earlier clamouring for, the government should instead use subsidies to lower the prices of key food commodities. Considering that ugali is a staple in the diets of many Kenyans, the move to subsidise its retail prices is laudab...

WOULD PRICE CONTROLS SUFFICE TO CURB INFLATION?

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  Kenya’s year-on-year inflation rate accelerated to 7.9 per cent in June 2022- the highest level it has scaled since August 2017. A closer look at the consumer price index shows that the jump in inflation was largely driven by considerable upward movements in the costs of food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as the rise in fuel prices after a price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) in mid June. In early June, there was a clamour by Kenyans on Twitter for the government to intervene in curbing the rising costs of living by imposing price controls on key commodities such as food. While the distress by Kenyans who have been pushed between a rock and a hard place by the rising costs of living is understandable, it is important to understand the ramifications of price controls. Price controls are government regulations on prices or their rates of change and may take the form of setting either maximum or minimum prices. I shall make references to the...

RE-IMAGINING PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN NAIROBI: LESSONS FROM ADDIS ABABA

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  According to a report released by the Nairobi Metropolitan Transport Authority (NaMATA) in September 2019, vehicles stuck in traffic potentially cost Kenya about $1 billion a year in lost productivity. In May of that year, the Cabinet Secretary for Transport James Macharia, had announced that the government had dedicated sh 200 billion to projects meant to reduce traffic congestion in Nairobi area. Though there was mention of the rolling out of a bus rapid transport system and the laying of new railway tracks, overtime, the focus seems to have been heavily on the expansion and recalibration of roads within and around the city if the construction of several by passes and the expressway are anything to go by. However, urban economists argue that the construction of more and wider roads does not necessarily translate to reduced traffic congestion. If anything, building more roads further compounds the problem as it encourages more commuters to use cars to commute to work in the lo...

Why Kenya's GDP figures contrast the actual situation on the ground.

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  About a month ago, during   president Uhuru Kenyatta’s   last Madaraka day address in office, he pointed out that since his government came into office in 2013, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had risen from sh4.5 trillion in 2013 to close to sh13 trillion presently, making Kenya’s economy the   6 th   largest in Africa, up from position 12. While the growth in the GDP numbers is laudable, there are pertinent questions to ask about the same. For starters, it is expected that growth in GDP, which represents the growth of a country’s market output, will automatically result in the reduction of unemployment rates as more jobs are created. The creation of more jobs leads to a rise in per capita incomes which consequently leads to a higher standard of living among the population. How then is it that, for the longest time now, social media, newspapers, radio and TV news reports have all been awash with stories of Kenyans lamenting about the high costs ...

A SNEAK PEEK INTO THE FUTURE OF WORK

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  Driven by the need to cut costs, improve efficiency and at the same time remain competitive, firms across the world have had to keep innovating and leveraging on technology. Will Purcell- a marketing specialist describes innovation as, “… the process that an individual or organization undertakes to conceptualize brand new products, processes and ideas or to approach existing products, processes and ideas in new ways.” Businesses that embrace innovation are likely to enhance their brands, increase efficiency, stay ahead of disruption and ultimately realize growth. If latest developments are to go by, then, there is no gainsaying the fact that technology takes center stage in most innovative processes across firms. A case in point is that of Uber, the popular ride sharing company. By combining modern technology with flexible payment and pricing strategies, while simultaneously offering a beneficial platform for prospective drivers the company was able to take over the taxi indu...

A KEENER LOOK INTO GREEN BONDS

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  On 17 th March insiders at Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) while speaking to journalists revealed that the bank is seriously considering floating a green bond of an upwards of sh114 billion. KCB, which recently announced a record shattering profit of sh34.2 billion for the year ending December 31, 2021 was in 2020 accredited by the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund (GCF) as the first lender in the country to support climate mitigation and adaption projects through green financing. Though still at the beginning of the acceleration phase, green bonds are on track to become a global craze. According to the Climate Bonds Market Intelligence (CBMI), the global green bonds market has exhibited a stellar growth of about 50% in the past five years. In 2020 alone, about $532 billion dollars was raised globally via green bonds- a year on year jump of about 87%. Results of a climate bonds survey carried out in October of 2021 by CBMI indicates that investors expect that global investment in...

ARE WE HEADED FOR A GLOBAL RECESSION IN 2022?

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  An unmistakably audible sigh of relief was heaved across the world last week when, for the first time since the beginning of the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, global oil prices fell back below $100 amid ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. This comes after a month of heightened anxiety over the rising oil prices driven by the Russia-Ukrainian conflict which saw per barrel oil prices surge close to record levels of about $146 per barrel set in 2008, propelled majorly by concerns over supply disruption and the impact of economic sanctions by the West on pugilistic Russia. Already, morbid fear was starting to grip the world amid speculation that the US and British bans on Russian oil imports- and pressure on Europe to follow suit were likely to prompt a supply shock equivalent to the 1979 oil crisis, which led to a severe global recession. To really understand this, we have to put the 1979 oil crisis into context. In January of 1978, Iranian youth, students and recent immi...

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR KENYANS

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  Presently, there are two topics that are the mainstays of any conversation by typical Kenyans: the first is of course the country’s political discourse while the second is the skyrocketing costs of living. It is not uncommon to hear a Kenyan lament, Uchumi imeharibika.   On Monday, the 14 th of March, the Energy Petroleum Authority (EPRA) released the petroleum review prices for the period 15 th March to 14 th April which saw diesel and petrol prices hit a 10 year high. Diesel and Super petrol jumped by sh5 a litre to sh134.72 and sh115.60 in Nairobi respectively. This increase is bound to cause cataclysmic effects on the costs of living. In response to the petroleum review, matatu owners yesterday threatened to hike bus fares. Additionally, the transportation costs for businesses will shoot and this increase in transportation costs will certainly be passed on to the consumer. It is almost a given that most food processing industries such as bakeries, maize millers ...

FROM THE FILES: BT COTTON'S PROMISE TO THE KENYAN ECONOMY.

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  With the government’s approval of BT cotton seed, as from March 2020 it is all systems go for cotton farmers. With BT comes the hope of a new j dawn for cotton growing in Kenya. A country that has seen far much better days as far as cotton farming is concerned. What exactly is BT bringing to the table?  Back in the ‘70’s Kenya was a major East African producer of seed cotton for both local and export consumption. However, this declined due to unstable market prices, poor agronomic policies and most importantly, high cost of production for farmers. Currently, Kenya produces an average of 25,000 bales against a demand of 200,000 bales and the deficit covered by importation from countries such as Uganda and Tanzania. This is utterly disappointing from a country where approximately 350,000 Hectares is arable for cotton growing and boasts a record high production (in 1995) of 38,000 metric tonnes. However all hope is not lost. If the government’s promise is anything to go b...

VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN AND GIRLS DOES AFFECT THE ECONOMY.

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  According to a United Nations report, it estimated that throughout their life, 1 out of every 3 women experiences physical abuse or sexual violence from their intimate relationship or from a non-partner.   As the world marked the International day for Elimination of Violence Against Women on 25 th November, it is not lost to the world over, that the lockdowns necessitated by the pandemic led to an increase in cases of Violence Against Women (VAW). This point is buttressed by a recent UN women research based on information from 13 nations that shows that 2 out of every 3 women have faced some type of abuse since the start of the pandemic. In Nigeria, the number of reported cases of gender-violence linked to lockdowns increased by more than 130% while reported cases in Croatia jumped by a whopping 228% during the first five months of 2020 compared to 2019. The ramifications of VAW are wide and far reaching. Not only does VAW imperil the welfare of women, girls and their f...

THE KENYAN ECONOMY SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY FROM THE DOLDRUMS OF THE PANDEMIC.

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  Yesterday, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) released the much awaited first and second quarters’ 2021 gross domestic product reports. Though we are yet to scale pre-pandemic levels, the report paints an economy that is slowly but surely recovering. From the report, in the first quarter of 2021 economic growth decelerated to 0.7% compared to 4.4% in the corresponding period in 2020 due to the emergence of COVID-19 in March 2020. Conversely, the real GDP (GDP figure that is adjusted for inflation) grew by 10.1% in the second quarter as compared to a 4.7% diminution in the same period in 2020. This growth is ascribed to the easing of COVID-19 containment measures and the gradual re-opening of the economy that has seen the economy show signs of recovery. Agriculture, fishing and forestry activities reported decreased activity in the beginning of 2021 and further went ahead to post a decrease of 0.9% in the second quarter as compared to a growth of   4.9% in the...