"My government shall lower the costs of living within the first 100 days of office" & other stories.

        Photo credit: First 100 days podcast.

In the song Good Times, rapper Mbithi sings, “utamu wa nyama choma nikukulia kwa mbao…,” I’d want to tweak that a little to, “utamu wa mutura nikukulia kwa mbao…,” sounds better this way yeah? At least that’s what I thought when I passed by my mutura guy’s place last Tuesday as I hurried home to catch the presidential debate. It’s what I think to myself every time I eat mutura from his place. Because come on, where else would mutura be served from if not from a wooden chopping board? I’ve seen gentrified folk post photos on the gram of their mutura being served in some fancy bowls in the posh restaurants they patron. I want to state it here, categorically, that that’s an affront to mutura. It’s against culture and tradition. Heck, it’s even unconstitutional. Njoro, our street lawyer can attest to this.

Njoro is a diehard patron of the Mutura base I frequent. He’s supposed to have graduated from law school like 10 years ago but hasn’t managed to do so to date. Nobody seems to know why. However, he demands that he be addressed as Wakili. The title is some sort of an alter ego for him I suppose. When I passed by the mutura base last Tuesday he was complaining of how the sizes of mutura have gotten thinner and shorter. My mutura guy empathisingly tried to explain to him that times have become bleak and that mutura’s ‘costs of production’ have risen. However, Njoro wanted to hear none of it.

“Sio unga kupanda bei, sio mafuta, na sasa size ya mutura inakuwa rationed?” Njoro tartly blurted out. He promised to challenge the matter in a court of law before leaving in a huff.

I digress. The debate on the cost of living has rightly so, become a major talking point as we hurtle towards the general elections. The Kenya Kwanza coalition lead by William Ruto and the Azimio la Umoja One coalition led by Raila Odinga have promised to bring down the costs of living within the first 100 days of office were they to get elected. The question to ask here is, how so?

During Tuesday’s presidential debate, when asked about how his coalition seeks to bring down the costs of living in the first 100 days of office, Ruto said that his side seeks to majorly focus on reducing the cost of food which gobbles up to 50 per cent of an average Kenyan household’s income. Latest data on this subject has been hard to come by, however, a 2016 report by the Institute of Economic Affairs shows that in 2015, 45 per cent of the average Kenyan household’s income was spent on food and drinks. Considering the prevailing economic situation between 2015 and now, that percentage may have risen and is reportedly at about 54 per cent.

Statista reports that expenditure on housing, water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels comes in second at 14.61 per cent while expenditure on Transport comes in third at 9.65 per cent.

This thus points to the fact that, anyone wishing to lower the costs of living has to pay great attention to the top three aforementioned categories in a bid to lower their prices.

For food, Ruto promises to work with farmers to boost the productivity of their crops by offering subsidised fertilizers, higher quality seeds, extension services, affordable credit and the completion of key dams to shift dependence from rain-fed agriculture to irrigation. If well implemented this proposal will have the effect of lowering the costs of production while at the same time increasing output. However, the question to ask here is, how possible is this within the first 100 days of office?

 Instructively, planting of most food crops in Kenya is mostly done in two phases: In February, in anticipation of the April to June long rains season with the harvests expected in August to mid September before embarking on land preparation and sowing in late September in anticipation of the October to December short rains season with harvesting done in the months of January and February the following year. With the elections slated for August 9, the president elect shall be sworn into office sometime in late August, to mean, the first 100 days of office elapses somewhere around early December while the crops are still in the farms. Think about it.

Enters the next two items on the list: Housing, water, Electricity, Gas & other fuels and Transport. I shall focus on electricity and gas and Transport. Azimio’s take on how they seek to tackle the costs of electricity and gas is short of details. Kenya Kwanza’s proposals to bring down the cost of electricity such as accelerating geothermal resources development among others, seem to be largely geared for the long-term. As such, it is not clear how both sides will bring down the costs of electricity and gas within the first 100 days of office.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a loan condition which requires the Kenyan government to drop the fuel subsidy programme by October. If that subsidy is phased out, then we will see an increase in the cost of fuel which has spillover effects which include; an increase in the cost of commute and an increase in the transportation costs of basic commodities (which include food items) that are majorly transported by road from the producers to retail stores. Again, the Azimio coalition makes no mention of this, while the Kenya Kwanza side says they will seek to have some of the taxes on fuel reviewed downwards or totally phased out. However, in the current fiscal year, our debt obligations are to the tune of ksh 1.36 trillion, as such, the incoming government will be hard-pressed to keep the levels of tax revenue as they are presently ( ksh 2.031 trillion was collected in the previous fiscal year) or even tighten the squeeze on Kenyans so as to meet the debt obligations as well as finance other budgetary items.

The way I see it, for either of the front runners to lower the costs of living within the first 100 days of office, they either have to put in place subsidies or marginally lower taxes on key consumer products both of which are a tough call given the current situation.

However, in the year of our good Lord 2022, I still believe in miracles. Can I get a resounding amen brethren?